Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.208030 2.317609 2.434245 2.568471 2.719765 2.886367 3.085638
2025-03-23 2.063404 2.216834 2.389013 2.599613 2.854853 3.160862 3.567032
2025-03-30 1.929270 2.100516 2.298729 2.550452 2.870338 3.277429 3.862805
2025-04-06 1.823697 2.003806 2.216825 2.494761 2.860726 3.348910 4.100211
2025-04-13 1.746886 1.933863 2.159002 2.459586 2.867921 3.436671 4.372110
2025-04-20 1.711234 1.910296 2.154873 2.490199 2.963008 3.658074 4.908149
2025-04-27 1.694580 1.908116 2.176074 2.554095 3.109710 3.980158 5.738318
2025-05-04 1.655985 1.875330 2.154484 2.556062 3.163884 4.162299 6.380842
2025-05-11 1.621506 1.845685 2.134642 2.557841 3.216375 4.349773 7.142072
2025-05-18 1.570753 1.792489 2.080131 2.505271 3.176420 4.360875 7.459109
2025-05-25 1.538859 1.762649 2.055690 2.494714 3.202986 4.502588 8.260402
2025-06-01 1.507344 1.731970 2.028448 2.477800 3.216585 4.620660 9.104911
2025-06-08 1.470667 1.694214 1.991217 2.445764 3.205254 4.693989 9.927366
2025-06-15 1.456502 1.686111 1.995000 2.476656 3.307376 5.042323 12.716461
2025-06-22 1.420154 1.646639 1.952568 2.432558 3.269283 5.055981 13.740316
2025-06-29 1.384034 1.606440 1.907669 2.382230 3.215437 5.021787 14.436344
2025-07-06 1.355466 1.575776 1.875390 2.350367 3.193535 5.065347 16.064158
2025-07-13 1.346113 1.571101 1.880226 2.378101 3.287360 5.438525 24.665348
2025-07-20 1.345617 1.578493 1.902711 2.435867 3.447701 6.073838 117.854096
2025-07-27 1.329835 1.563975 1.892152 2.437643 3.494203 6.384425 NaN
2025-08-03 1.314824 1.550077 1.881928 2.439248 3.540490 6.720436 NaN
2025-08-10 1.287793 1.518546 1.844241 2.391742 3.475593 6.621569 NaN
2025-08-17 1.271630 1.502075 1.828822 2.382189 3.493802 6.857699 NaN